Single Status Update
I was able to find what's causing my TSL not to start. It's the service called "Windows Audio Endpoint Builder". Disabling that allows me to start the game (GoG or LegacyPC on Steam) just fine.
The problem is that this service is necessary to have any audio at all in Windows. So now I can either play without sound or with the broken fog from the Aspyr patch... Great, just great.
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It doesn't crash for me either. It just doesn't launch.
But it's also a recent problem. TSL has been working fine ever since I built this PC with Win 10. It was only last month after a longer modding break that for some reason the GoG version would no longer launch. At that point the legacypc version on Steam was still working but a few weeks later the same thing happened there.
I don't know why. Reinstalling Windows might even fix it, but I don't want to do that right now.